Processing Margin Monitor PTA + MEG → Polyester Chain30D Avg / 90D Avg
30.5% / 28.7%
+2.2pp 30d
Regime
Mean-Reverting
Half-life: 23d
Input Cost Trend (90D ann.)
-25.9%
Margin reverts in ~23d — favor Model A/B
Order Model Risk
A (Quarterly)
Cautionδ=0.7
Breakeven: 43%
B (Monthly)
Safeδ=0.3
Breakeven: 103%
C (Spot)
Safeδ=0.05
Breakeven: 500%
Prediction Market Sentiment
Data sourced from SunSirs. Prices in RMB/ton unless noted. FX rates via Frankfurter + open.er-api.
