Processing Margin Monitor PTA + MEG → Polyester Chain30D Avg / 90D Avg
28.1% / 30.1%
+1.4pp 30d
Regime
Trending
Half-life: ∞
Input Cost Trend (90D ann.)
+128.6%
No mean reversion detected — shift to Model C, invoke playbook
Order Model Risk
A (Quarterly)
Dangerδ=0.7
Breakeven: 43%
B (Monthly)
Dangerδ=0.3
Breakeven: 103%
C (Spot)
Safeδ=0.05
Breakeven: 500%
Prediction Market Sentiment
Polymarket
Data sourced from SunSirs. Prices in RMB/ton unless noted. FX rates via Frankfurter + open.er-api.
