Processing Margin Monitor PTA + MEG → Polyester Chain30D Avg / 90D Avg
27.4% / 28.4%
-5.5pp 30d
Regime
Slow Reversion
Half-life: 33d
Input Cost Trend (90D ann.)
+25.4%
Margin reverts in ~33d — prefer Model B
Order Model Risk
A (Quarterly)
Cautionδ=0.7
Breakeven: 43%
B (Monthly)
Safeδ=0.3
Breakeven: 103%
C (Spot)
Safeδ=0.05
Breakeven: 500%
Prediction Market Sentiment
Data sourced from SunSirs. Prices in RMB/ton unless noted. FX rates via Frankfurter + open.er-api.
